Tuesday Central Region Update: July 16, 2013

It has been generally a cool July in the central states, in sharp contrast to 2012.

Likewise a cool year to date in sharp contrast to 2012.

A heat ridge built quickly into the northeast ahead of a trough rolling through the southern plains, but it is replaced by troughing.

The MJO has weakened and rotates back to phase 1 in the GFS ensembles and phase 2 in the EC ensembles.

Phase 2 is colder than phase 1, but th GFS has it relatively cool week 2.

The east tropical Pacific continues cold with warmth in the north central Pacific, the opposite in many areas to 2012 and helps explain the relative coolness this year versus 2012. As long as the anomalies are such that the central i warmer relative to normal than the eastern Tropical Pacific, then it should be warm west and cooler or at least normal east of the Rockies.

Look at the GFS ensemble temperature (highs and lows) for some central cities the next 16 days.

T he CFS has it normal to cool through August.

It is dry in the plains and wet to the east.

Last year drought was everywhere.

The drought monitor shows the drought is worst in the plains into the southwest Corn Belt.

Again last year is was growing everywhere.

That cut off low has brought unseasonably cool temperatures and heavy rains to the southern Plains.

That will drift southwest on the dailies.

The driest weather the next 10 days will be in the central to Northern Plains as the ridge rebuilds west.

The CFS sees wetter conditions there though through August.