Long Range New England Weather 3-27-14

Northeast Flood Risk, Interior Wintry Mix Continues

Heard that the Cherry Blossoms will be the latest in 40 years this year peaking in DC this year. They arent stupid. Getting Shredded by sleet or having snowflakes the size of canned hams landing on you and trying to drag you down cant be fun. Its been snowing around DC this afternoon and the ECMWF is saying this band of heavy rain in eastern PA is going to cause some problems.. with whack a mole snow later tonight and tom am around NYC and southern New England

This storm has been as nutty in its sudden appearance of snow as you see but with the energy now coming into the new storm offshore this may be a pretty good idea the next 12-18 hours. The 12z runs of all models had none in agreement as to where it would snow hard. They all had a band, but in different places..

To the main aspect here. The major storm pulling out of the south later in the week has a look where we can get that 65 wet bulb and intersect it with sub 1008 mb pressures and come up with a severe weather area for Wed and Thur..lets outline it at 00z Thu with the 60 DP on the ECMWF

Thur pm

Lets see how things turn out with this.

The storm is tricky after it goes by, because if it slows it means the storm next week may be further south. In fact I would look for that to adjust east with time. The day 5 500 has this

That positive trying to pop north of it is trouble. For it means that this may slow and deepen on day 7.5

I would look for a stronger positive over the lakes and Ontario forcing alot of the jet and development further south with the day 8-10 storm. Think about the back and forth we have been seeing.. storms moving further north, following by systems further south. ITS BEEN SNOWING IN DC YET AGAIN TODAY! This was supposed to be a simple trough marching through with nothing like this. The phase 3 MJO the coming week is impressive

This argues for a very suppressed jet and strong west east trough across the southern US, So while there may be storm next Tuesday up toward the lakes, if there is a bomb on the Va coast, it would not surprise me in the least. In any case, the march out of winter described yesterday ( and again it mainly for areas that may have the kind of cold around April 7th they last saw that late in 2007.. I am very worried about a freeze all the way to the I-20 corridor in 8-10 days) has some rough sledding in front of it. Chicago to Boston, probably NYC, Philly ( dare I say DC????) have probably not seen their last snow.

Heh I might be right off the bat tonight around NYC anyway ha ha

ciao for now

Blizzard Cuts Power to Many in New England

Heavy snow and high winds combine to bring blizzard conditions from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia.

Snow For Northeast; Blizzard Conditions Possible in New England

Ever Hear the song by the Monkees, The Girl I Knew Somewhere? Its on my list of the greatest haunting Heartache Songs ever ( Number 1, Jimmy Ruffins What Becomes of the Broken Hearted?) But at the risk of alienating alot of you, I know there are some of you that look at snow the way you may have looked at someone across a crowded room and know the fleeting heartache of something you would never even have a chance at.

Fortunately for me, and I am sure many of you ( I hope all) you have had the storm of your dreams at one time, and wound up with the girl of your dreams. Its funny you never know what tomorrow will bring. In any case As I look at Mt Holly radar, the date we are in , and remember those days I grew up on the Jersey shore, though this storm has missed many, it has a target in my heart. The fact is that one may never see the subject of that heartache song again, and I will never see a snowstorm where I grew up again. But one can look at it and see, in this case.. The Storm I knew Somewhere

That heavy band is coming right in on Somers Point NJ

 

The modeling has done a good job with this.. though we have the northwest system, the pulling in to the east was something that I could not pull the trigger on until today. Much later than all of you, but then again, its because of some of the other storms that we have seen that did not jump out. If I may, the last great storm I will ever see in Somers Point, the post Christmas storm of 2010 was a case in point, though years later the fog of the past alot of people remember it differently

 

But I am preparing our 90 day forecast and I have may no secret about our cold April. And I want to show you something here, that is very interesting. A classic case of linking past to present and using a model as a tool for the future.

The 3 very cold winters, 1977-1978, 1983-1984, 1995-1996 had very cold Marches that followed.

Look at those winters

 

Look at this winter

 

Look at the following Marches to the cold winters

 

Now look at this March

 

So the following Aprils

 

Precip

Hard to get it warm. Some shows up in the se, but by and large the areas that were coldest, stay cold.. and the west has cooled down.

 

The link is that the cold winters THAT HAVE COLD MARCHES. usually have cold Aprils. Its not the cold March, its the set of cold Marches where winters were very cold.

 

now we jump to the JMA forecast for April, with precip on top, the 500 and then the temps

 

Of course they are not exact, but they supply evidence that we have to look out for a cold April especially in the ares that were coldest in March, and the winter

Notes and asides:

If you listen this, think about me gazing at what is going on where I used to live

New England, Canada Blizzard to Halt Travel

A blizzard could slow travel, cut power, close schools and cause significant disruptions to daily routines.

Midweek Meteorological Bomb

In a way this storm reminds me of Sandy. Not because of the impact (hopefully) in the United States, but because we have talked about it for a LONG time. You may remember we first mentioned this storm during last Monday’s Long Range Forecast. It has looked like a meteorological (nuclear) bomb for a few days, and the models are not backing off their predictions of a sea level pressure similar to a strong category three hurricane. We are playing with a blow torch, indeed.

This is a forecast that could change considerably in the next 24 hours. Most recent runs of the Canadian global and NAM hi-res model shifted west, with a bigger impact in SNE than they were forecasting in the past few runs. The 18Z NAM predicts 5-6″ of snow in Providence, 10″ in New Bedford, and 12-20″ on Cape Cod, with the potential for hurricane-force wind gusts on Cape Cod and the islands!

Thankfully, the ECMWF stayed solid with a track that has some impact, but not an overwhelming one, in RI, and a blizzard for Cape Cod and the islands. That has been our prediction from the start, and, even though we nudged our snow forecast totals down a bit (partly out of boredom?), the first map may be closer to correct than the most recent map, but we’re not going to start bouncing back and forth every few hours to split hairs on 2-4″ and 3-6″ forecasts. If tonight’s runs call for a change, we’ll make it.

 

 

Spring Blizzard to Graze New England, Slam Canada

A blizzard could slow travel, cut power, close schools and cause significant disruptions to daily routines.

Spring Blizzard Threatens to Swipe Eastern New England

As of this writing, and though there looks to be a bit of an eastward drift of the models… I have no changes.

The call is for the center of the storm to be near 40 north and 70 west, sometime between 06z and 18z Wednesday, Here is the method behind the madness

The 12z March 22 ECMWF forecast for 06z Wednesday had this:

This had a 985 low near 36 north and 69 west, but the appendage northwest to where I believe the true center will be. Now lets look at the current forecast for the same time ( ECWMF) IT PULLS A FUJIWARA watch the northwest system move east, the eastern system swing up.. I dont know that I have seen something like this, so I am having a lot of problems thinking this can happen.

60hr

66 hours

combined at 72 hours.. with Sandy like intensity ( 945 mb) about 150 ene of where I think the center will be)

At 60 hrs, Both centers are stronger, but closer together. The southeastern system has trended a bit west, The northern center a bit east. But this is the problem, One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why. If we look at the 60 hour 500 mb, valid 00z March 26 the trough is still well back, and the “tucking” of the upper height lines argues for the western system. As I have pointed out, this is over the warm bend in the SST for one and for 2) likely where the TRUE arctic front is. So the strongest height falls are hitting the area where the water is warmest and the true arctic front is. The model is trying to develop the convective feedback system on the Polar front to the southeast. Of course if it is right, I am wrong about what I see to be a 1-2 foot storm southeast of the Boston to Bridgeport line with 6 -12 PHL to Bridgeport in the crucial corridor. But the 500 mb looks like this:

You can see it starting some kind of warm core feed back where it bends the red 540Hgt line. However the place where the focus of the vort packing is located is right off the va capes

Here is the 60 hour

66 hour

Its between this time and 72 hours, 6 hours, that the entire system spins up to the east

You basically have the model spinning up a warm core system from the southeastern low, which is suspect.. The 500 changes dramatically from the 60 hour to 72 so the big picture looks like this

That “pulls” the storm east

Even so the snowfall at 10-1 ratios is impressive for late march and not that far away from my idea, and if all this works out, the most likely solution

Now consider this: The way all this happens is the initial snowband plainly in the I-95 corridor and simply amplifies stronger and stronger as the northwest system develops, and the system southeast of it is an appendage THAT GETS PULLED INTO IT? The models all are saying the northwest system gets pulled into the southeast system, which develops way out there. And I see that.. see how I am dead wrong. But there is a) no confluence in front of this by 60 hours.. so why is the warming off shore not going to proceed around the northwest center. If the low is weaker.. by several mb then the northwest storm is the storm! So the net result for now is to stay where I am .. I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out

For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see.

Here we are, late March and look at this. And given the pattern I am seeing through April 15, while warming is coming, so is blocking and with plenty of cold holding in central Canada this may not be the last threat. Not like i hasnt happened before.. 1982,1983, 1972. 1997 etc as examples

Whether this comes or not.. the fact that after this winter, the cold this week and this threat continues to show how wild this winter was.

SPRING SNOWSTORM MAY TARGET CAROLINAS TO MAINE

The potential for a spring snowstorm, along with blizzard conditions in New England, is being monitored.

Computer Model Trends: A Midweek Bomb

A meteorological bomb is defined as a storm where the central pressure drops at least 24mb in 24 hours. The storm that develops in the Atlantic Ocean next week will be explosive. If some models are correct, you can forget about an average of 1mb/hour, this storm may deepen at 2mb/hour over 24 hours! Let’s call it nuclear.

Those who have followed me for a while know that I like to throw around the phrase “playing with fire” when referring to these big storms that are just far enough offshore to not look like a major impact in Southern New England. With this one we are playing with a blowtorch. If it comes any closer than the current consensus forecast it will be a major blizzard from I-95 east to Cape Cod and the islands. As it is, this will likely be a blizzard for the Cape and islands.

The computer model trend over night was a nudge to the west over yesterday’s run. As currently projected, I think it’s a 3-6″ event for RI and 6-12″ in Eastern MA. It’s still a little early and too low confidence for a first-look snow map, but that gives you an idea of the current thought process. If it’s any further west, we quickly get to the widespread 8-16″ storm scenario. Check out the very impressive computer model maps below.

The GFS has a very intense storm, but not as strong as the ECMWF or Canadian model. It would be an Eastern MA blizzard, and a few inches of snow in RI.

You can see the core of the strong winds just off the coast. A slight jog west, and hurricane-force gusts would hit Cape Cod.

GFS Snow totals – The heaviest snow misses RI. The model does not show snow on Cape/Islands because of the way the grid points are set up. There would be 6″+ out there.

EPS Ensemble mean snow – this is an average of the 50 EPS members. It shows a moderate to high-impact event for RI and SE MA.

EPS Control Snow forecast – The EPS Control run with a heavy snow event in coastal SE MA

EPS Precipitation forecast – heaviest is just offshore…playing with a blowtorch.

ECWMF wind gusts – potential for hurricane-force gusts just off shore or on Cape/Islands

ECMWF Operational snow forecast – A MAJOR event for coastal SE MA

ECMWF Ensemble low positions – all the different members show an intense storm. Some are historically strong. Anything in the circled area would be a HUGE storm for Eastern MA and quite a big deal for RI, too.

Canadian model – snow forecast – A raging blizzard on Cape Cod and the islands. Notice the sharp cutoff on the western edge of the storm. Therefore, if the storm track shifts slightly east, the impact goes down dramatically.

Canadian – that is a wicked intense storm southeast of Nantucket. Incredible.