Snowstorm to Threaten East Coast Next Week

The path and strength of a storm Tuesday into Wednesday will determine which areas on the East Coast may be hit by snow.

Chances of an East Coast Snowstorm Increase

Good evening! Here is an updated model analysis regarding next week’s snowstorm. The chances are now higher for a storm, and I would say there is a 60-70% chance of it happening. First, let’s take a look at the 18z GFS at Hour 114. 

 

Areas north of the 0 BLUE LINE are below freezing, which means that those areas will be getting snow at this moment, according to the GFS. Roughly areas from I-20 northward get snow/winter precipitation. Here is the next frame, Hour 120, of the 18z GFS. 

 

Again, areas north of the 0 Blue Line are below freezing, so most of North Carolina, except the southeast corner, is in snow or wintry precipitation. However, the GFS then takes the system too far from the coast to produce snow further in Mid-Atlantic and New England. 

 

The Canadian model shows a scenario that seems a little weird. It has a double low scenario, with one weakening, and then another forming right off the coast. It has a tendency to often put up double lows on the map. regardless, in its scenario, it has the North Carolina and Virginia mountains, and a lot of Southern New England, in snow. 

 

Now, here is the 12z European. It shows a monster snowstorm, just like yesterday, so let’s take a look at a few frames. Below is Hour 120 on the European.

 

The purple dashed line you see on the above image is the freezing line. Everyone above that line is getting snow/wintry precipitation. Now take a look at what happens at the next frame (Hour 132).

 

There is some very heavy precipitation inside in the purple line. This means a very heavy mix or very heavy wet snow for places like Rocky Mount, NC. Also, the massive low pressure system now approaches the Northeast with some heavy precipitation. I do think this precip is a lot further west then it actually will be. I do not think areas west of Eastern West Virginia will get snow. Maybe a few flurries, but thats it. Now, here is the next frame, Hour 144. 

 

Look at that low in the Atlantic. Wow! It seems to be in the 960-970 mb range. Even though it is pretty far from the coast, it is so strong that it produces a lot of heavy snow along the coast. If this verifies, it actually means it would be a major blizzard. I personally do not think the European is quite right. The track and snow areas will probably be pretty similar to what the Euro shows, but everything will be actually weaker than what it shows. Does the potential exist for a system of this strength? Yes, obviously. However, I give it only a 10% chance of verifying. Perhaps a system with heights in the 990 millibar range is more realistic. 

 

Unlike the 2 storms that have been driven south this month, this is much more like a storm (next week) that should trend west and stronger with time. Therefore I think the swath of snow and the pressures you see on the ECWMF package are not yet west enough.

Control snow

Operational

Long Range New England Weather 3-20-14

By now you have probably heard about the potential for a storm along the East Coast next week. There will be a sharpening trough in the Eastern United States, and a storm will likely form in the Southeastern United States and head northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The speed and degree of the trough sharpening will decide whether the storm misses, hits, or brushes Southern New England. We will check the computer model trends in the coming days.

Storm Potential 3/26/14 The Early Synopsis

By now you have probably heard about the potential for a storm along the East Coast next week. There will be a sharpening trough in the Eastern United States, and a storm will likely form in the Southeastern United States and head northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The speed and degree of the trough sharpening will decide whether the storm misses, hits, or brushes Southern New England. We will check the computer model trends in the coming days.

Winter Continues Through March for Many

Perhaps that should have been the title. But look at this map. NOAA is using a scheme called “Divisional Ranking” to show the public how temperatures were. I have 2 objections to this as to why this is deceiving.

 

1) The shading of the below normal temps is nowhere near as distinct as the shading of the above. You have to look twice to see it.

2) The other,and while this may be a valid method, it is very deceptive against reality. The divisional ranking scheme is such that , for instance, Hartford CT at 5.5 BELOW NORMAL is in the Near average, as well as NYC around 3.8 BELOW NORMAL. While we see LasVegas and a whole host of cities in the southwest at around 4 above normal in the much above? I understand what this is saying, because of the long nights where its dry its hard to have it this warm ( though Las Vegas and some of the other southwest cities are warmer now because they have become major urban heat islands compared to what they were 30-50 years ago). But how many of you in the northeast believe this was near normal or just a bit below? So using this method is deceptive. Unless you understand math, you are thinking Chicago at 10 below normal is in the same ball park as the southwest, which is nowhere near as warm as it was cold

Look at the actual temps, every 1.1C ( close to 2F and you tell me if what these people are doing is anything short of a deceptive practice to make it not look as cold as it was. BAD ENOUGH the temp distribution, but the shade of the colors should make it clear. And by the way, this was sent to me from someone at a prominent meteorology school, who shall remain nameless given the political climate we are in today.

This is classic. If NOAA put out that map above with actual temperatures , do you think it would have the lack of effect as someone glancing at what they did with the other chart, especially since we saw their winter forecast and the reality of what actually happened

Takes all the fun out of this:

Perhaps if this happens it would get New England, given the way NOAA is playing with divisional rankings, into the above normal for snowfall

Snowstorm Set to Sweep from St. Louis to Baltimore

Mother Nature will bring another blast of winter weather from Missouri to Delaware before spring arrives.

More Snow Incoming

I cant believe this.

I am trying to find something similar to this and perhaps there is an example in early March 1980.

00z March 1

 12z

00z March 2

12z

00z

March 3

But this was a much bigger high and the low was driven into the gulf, not in northern Arkansas.. I cant believe the energy coming down is going to split that much away from the low level system. It should go the other way. The nam, which is the furthest north is absolutely bizarre to me. At 30 hours every thing is fine and dandy.. negative tilt to a trough with a northern feature feeding into the southern feature, which by the way was the tiny piece that was left behind by the big storm that went through and shifted north with time

How that morphs into this, with a cut off near the Big Bend of Texas and the other piece shearing out is above my pay grade.. or put it this way, if it happens its not cause I believed it would from this time

This is still a heck of a storm, but its in the area that got hit on March 2/3. Considering this is March 17/18 and there is a threat of a foot of snow with this at its core is remarkable enough, but if more comes out it should be further north and stronger.

But the models have trended away. A look at the ECWMF which had a 6 inch fall here at TF Green with 10 of the 50 members over 8 inches shows that while some members still have that, there are now as many or more with no snow

 

If we go to Dulles, we have alot of members with the big snow

you can go down the list and look for yourself.

Finally what a remarkable ECWMF in days 11-15. I know there are some people that like me in academia ( they shall remain nameless to protect their innocence) and this is so classic as far as a stratwarm event with the cold that you may never see a perfect March example like this again as a teacher. I want you to look at this day 14 30 mb from the UKMET site

remember the displacement of cold should be south of the warmest air.

Look at the day 9-14 500 mb means

850 mb temps

While the storm might stump me ( I still like the nam best) things like this dont. But this is an amazing example of a late winter strat warm before the dawn of spring.

BTW we have a major jailbreak going on in the pattern that the models and most likely me, are not going to be able to handle. Rarely if ever do I approach a situation this way, but I realize with the seasons changing and the huge reversal in the SOI leading to the appearance of the MJO where it has not ventured in the past year ( remember it could never get into phase 2/3 for the hurricane season) we now have a pattern that is a track race. Perhaps that is the excuse if I am wrong, reason if I am right for the situation in the coming days. But unlike going into the fall when we simply had to adjust to the time of year the pattern, we are changing now not only the time of the year but what is driving this. The influence of the tropics, something that I believe was minimal this winter, is starting to show up again and so better buckle up for some wild swings in the modeling Tom Downs and I were discussing all this in email exchanges today and he rightfully point out that the stratwarm is also a big problem, though I think indirectly in that it leads to a stronger temperature gradient and the threat that any sudden shortening of wavelengths in the next 3 weeks and we are looking at the freakish occurrences like April of 75 or 82. But the MJO is starting to come to life

I sent this to my clients at midday

This does not look the way I think it should as I am have a tough time believing a 1000 mb low in Arkansas on Sunday morning will wimp out. The Brazilian meteogram has the pressure at 990 mb at the NYC grid site Monday evening, for instance.

Behind this, the model run is bearish compared to what I am thinking. I simply cannot find any support for my ideas in it. In looking at the MJO off of the ECWMF this morning, this should not be a warm pattern.

While there is no question we are pulling out of winter, the way we are pulling out will continue to have setbacks similar to last year. The ECMWF MJO forecast is ugly. When we look at its monthly phase forecast and then stack up what those phases mean in March and April, we see the reason for my concern:

We have not seen the MJO get into any phases that would lock it in for cold, and the fact it’s now showing up is an even stronger indication that a signal from the tropics is going to be throwing its two cents into the weather (something that was overpowered this winter by the intensity of the warmth in the north Pacific). The SOI is continue its downturn:

Now you may say, correctly, the MJO has been a non-player. However, we have not had a consistent downturn in the SOI like this for one, nor has it gotten anywhere near these phases this winter. So the concerns I have remain, based on what I am seeing in the physical reality in front of us. That being said, I was expecting a more bullish run of the GFS, and don’t want to appear stubborn, but believe it will not handle this upcoming 5-10 days very well.

 

thanks for reading.. I am going to crawl into the fetal position and suck my thumb till I see something that agrees with me

 

 

Severe Storms, Snow to Target South and East

Another storm in a seemingly endless parade may impact Texas to Maine.

Long Range New England Weather 3-13-14

The high temperature for the five days before Thursday averaged 53° in Providence. Even with that warm stretch, the month is still running more than 4° colder than normal. Unfortunately, there is no huge warm-up on the horizon in the next couple of weeks. In fact, there is a decent chance that the month is colder relative to normal than any of the chilly months that preceded ti from November through February. The weekend looks up and down temperature-wise. Mild on Saturday, cool on Sunday. We are keeping a very close eye on the storm potential for Monday. The models have trended north with the system in the past 24 hours. At this point, confidence is increasing in some snow on Monday, but, it is still too early to say if it will be heavy enough to stick. As we saw today, at this time of the year it really needs to come down to stick to the pavement because of the high sun angle. Late this morning it was 17° and snowing, but melting on contact due to the light intensity of the snow and the high mid-March sun angle. Regardless of whether the storm brings snow, it will be cold in the early to middle part of next week. By late next week it should get mild enough for rain showers to threaten. A cold front will pass through with the chance of rain, followed by another cold shot next weekend or early the following week. The overall pattern for the last full week of March is for an unseasonable chill in the northern half of the country — where we live! Lucky us!

Snow for the First Week of Spring?

You will see here how I did not simply just run to the ECWMF, but stood my ground yet admitting it did rattle me. As it is midday is further north and the most impressive flip is the UKMET

March 13, 2014

Confidence in the 6-10 Day is lower this morning as the ECMWF is going the way of the GFS, as it sends the storm off the south Atlantic coast. The ensemble is not nearly as impressive as yesterday for this period:

The Canadian Ensembles remain impressive:

With a surface map that explains the top limit (for a storm) of what this pattern could do:

This puts the core of an extreme snowfall precisely where the ECMWF and GFS say it will not be:

The support for this is with the DGEX, which has been insisting that this is coming for several days (this is the NAM which is run out to 192 hours):

The problem with knowing every model known to man is that you can always find support for a position until the day before. In this case, I have these two models which have been consistent in their support of my idea. That being said if the ECMWF does not come back to its ideas (ensemble) by tomorrow, it’s likely the flatter solution is correct. The reason you simply do not throw in the towel is because what they are forecasting is extreme (for Mexico!). When was the last time you saw something like this split so strongly and drive this far south into Mexico? Think about it.. we go from this at 60 hours:

To this at 108 hours:

Then it completely disappears??? Never to be heard from??:

It’s actually in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t know if I have ever seen that, and what is more likely in most cases is that it would keep coming out. Not even all of it has to get ejected northward, just half of it changes the equation dramatically.

That is what just happened with this current storm. The model decided that more was going to hang back, so it left us late last week with a flat solution. Then, it picked up over the weekend that this was coming out, and bang, everything shifted northward and stronger. That of course does not mean it will do it next time, but it means that as long as there are models that see the other extreme, it’s best not to write it off completely.

The idea that snow means big ticket cold the day it snows and the couple of days afterward, the cold may stay around afterward in the more southern areas (longer of course in the north), which can really cause a problem. A St. Paddy’s day snow storm in a PHL or NYC would mean a couple of days with mean temperatures near 25°F, while a non-event is 5-8°F higher. So, if I seem defensive here, I am!

The 5-day increment maps still show the ECMWF with the enormous cold pool forming over Canada, and frigid air developing over all of Canada. The warm West, cold East now allows these shots of warmer air to come across, but the longer term development of cold West to East to the north, means that the warmups would have to try to come from the south, a far more difficult thing to pull off as the movement of warmer air northward into cold, rather than just getting routed out by westerlies, leads to heavier precipitation (and precipitation retards warmth). In any case, Days 1-5 at 500 mb with the 850 mb below:

 

Days 6-10:

 

Days 11-15:

 

With the EPO negative:

The worry exemplified by the 00z GFS run of a major arctic attack in Day 10 and beyond is a concern!

Here is the 11-16 Day GFS temperatures:

By the way, to put in a plug again about how a stratosphereic warming event in March is not like it would be in April, how textbook can you get when you look at Day 16 at 30mb? This is where the warmest air is in relation to the 500 mb means (i.e. the opposite).

No new SOI update this morning.

So to conclude, modeling is NOT going my way with storm next week, and it raises the uncertainty. The extreme event is still supported by the less desirables in model world (with friends like that, who needs enemies). Then again, if its my friend, I will listen to it. So, I am rattled by the ECMWF Ensembles, but that being said, they continue to show what I fear in the longer term and I think the Weeklies tonight will go the way they usually have gone the past several months – colder than the run before.