Severe Storms to Threaten Millions From St. Louis to New Orleans on Monday

Unsettled Weather Impacts I-95 Corridor in the Northeast

GFS is likely not cold enough in Week 2 for two reasons:

1. Phase 1 of the MJO favors colder weather
2. Its normal error probably is catching up to it, trying to get rid of the trough so fast it does not pull in the arctic air mass that will follow (likely farther in than the surge down the Plains).

Look at the Day 7 GFS Operational, Ensemble and ECMWF:

 

The problem is likely over western Canada as the ECMWF handles this much differently

By the time Day 10 comes along, the differences are stark.

GFS Operational:

GFS Ensemble:

ECMWF:

In the 8-10, off the PSU site, we see the stark differences with the GFS in the middle and the Canadian right and ECWMF left. Of course in the GFS is right, then it was surrounded by incompetence, but chances are its more the monkey in the middle

Where the GFS may be scoring the coup is this weekend in New England, where it continues to show accumulating snow:

 

This would not be as bad as what heppened there in early May 1977 as the trees were out full blast for that event, and as of last week even in Providence there was little foliage on the trees. Its in the 60s in much of that area now, but shift the wind to the east and northeast and in comes the ocean air, taken temps down into the 30s tom night and then with the upper low cruising underneath..

Put it this way.. I saw it in the 60s here on Mothers day 2008 ( the mother of all mothers day storms on the Jersey shore late Sunday night and Monday with the hurricane force gusts as the low exploded) but it snowed here in central pa!

This looks colder… Sunday am

 

 

 

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Long Range New England Weather 4-24-14

According to the EURO, some areas could see 4-6″ of rain within a 5-7 day period! While 5-7″ of rain may not seem like a lot over a 5-7 day period, it would just be like getting 40-60″ or more in a 5-7 day period, so just be thankful!

USING ECWMF TO FIGURE OUT WHEN SOI FLIPS

The SOI is the difference in the standard deviation in pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. ( here is the birds eye low down on this caper from the Australian site.. the Long Paddock: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml) If pressures are lower than normal in Darwin and at or above normal in Tahiti, the SOI is positive. Obviously if opposite its negative. A look at the 12z surface deviations from normal indicates pressures are lower than normla around Australia and near normal at Tahiti

This is expected to continue for the next week or so overall.. look at the 168. ( Darwin is in northern Australia, Tahiti in the central Pacific almost due east .. There is a strong high going by to the south

However once out to day 10, it changes with a major burst of higher pressures northeast of Australia and so this should flip the SOI for a time

Higher than average pressures also dominate Asia indicating a significant burst of westerlies is being seen by the European. It should have a large affect on the Global Wind oscillation and the implication is a dropping SOI n May.

An earlier post talked about the rapid rise in the SOI this month. Lets look at the sea level pressure anomalies in Aprils of Super Ninos

 

One can see pressures 1-2 mb Higher, not lower, across all of Australia! so the implication is for less east wind ( more west component) against the average in the tropical Pacific and with it the situation that produces warming of water. Lets take a La Nina year.. like 2011

 

Higher pressures in the central Pacific, meaning a net increase in the low level easterlies and the cooling of the water

But how about April so far?

Pressures lower west ( slightly so far, hence the slightly positive SOI) and near normal around Tahiti , but certainly nothing like the Super Nino years

Nice eh?

Storm to Spoil Spring for Millions Next Week in Midwest, East

A large storm will form over the eastern half of the nation next week and will bring a swath of unsettled conditions for days.

Heavy Rain, Flooding Inundate Southeast

April 18.. the ice is almost gone on Erie

April 18 11 am. 35 degrees in the Poconos patches of snow on the ground

April 18.. Rhode Island is behind central Pa as far as foliage.

Just journeyed to my mom and dads house in RI. The foliage is behind, but more so in New England than pa.

The promise of warmth over the lake and northeast we saw last week on the GFS ensembles is getting dashed again. A strong trough will move through the northeast the middle of next week and cold air sweeps through the lakes into the northeast, cutting the surge of spring and summer out of the southern plains that is coming east. That will be in place though for the major trough to lift through the warm air over the plains for the severe weather outbreak the middle of next week. But sudden shortening of the wavelengths means that the north south ridge ensembles showed.. and again I think alot of people do not understand the ensemble is not a forecast like a single run, its a blend of many model runs.. and what may be a ridge north south very often is a fight in the model where a cluster has many members spread all over the place, as we get closer to the time in question, gravitate toward a single solution. The danger is that the northern ridge is the stronger and getting stuck underneath is the trough

Before looking at that. I heard a weather channel forecaster on the New York outlet refer to tropical downpours in the se tomorrow.

Its going to rain heavily but TROPICAL? WITH TEMPS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL

You may think, Derek why are you picking on someone. Its systemic in my business. I heard a forecast here Monday on the air from a guy happy talking a turn to cooler for Tuesday… he was forecasting windy and cooler with temps in the 40s in the afternoon. a) It was 83 the day before b) it was in the 70s the day he was on..on noon. c) even if it was in the 40s with a leftover shower as he had.. with wind, it feels 40s lower. Never mind the next day it fell into the 30s with wind chills in the 20 and snow in the air after 3 pm.

My point is the communication is important. Downpours yes Tropical.. with temps in the 40s and 50s on an Easter Weekend that is late in the southeast US? Seriously

Now here is the wild thing. If this is classified Sunday or Monday once well off the coast , it would not surprise me. So I guess if that happens you can say…see tropical. But that 500 mb by Easter afternoon where the upper feature is weakening

There is an area of gales but no tight circulation yet forecasted

And yes its going to rain hard.

But I would reserve the tropical downpours for temps in the 70s..

Its like the reason its snowing more is because its warmer.. If we are going to call a storm with ne gales and temps 20-25 below normal in April tropical downpours… what hope is there

Now the 500 mb shows a deep trough in the gulf of Alaska at 72 hours

So guess what happens over the northeast

That trough goes into the west ( the one offshore) but replacing it is the trough coming through the Aleutians. Notice the major flip in the heights in Greenland. So that is going to be a problem. the western trough lifts with the severe weather worry then runs into the block coming back

180 hour

222

And the reload starts anew as the next step would be take the ridge back again and worry about the trough redeepening

Sudden shortening.. and the cold still available. while the surge does come out, it gets beaten back yet again

ciao for now

Long Range New England Weather 4-17-14

Spring is finally arriving! YAY! Consistent above average temps expected! However, does the chance still exist that we can see cold shots? Of course! Will we see many of them?

Warmer Weather Returns This Week

To say the least, most of us are probably sick and tired of winter by this point. The good news is, a warm-up is on the way! Warm temperatures will return to the Northeast beginning Monday,, with the warmest weather coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s a look at a couple of the forecast model high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Spring Snow to Spread Over Minneapolis, Duluth

Anyone notice how since 2009 , snow is coming earlier and later each year. Even the super warm winter of 11-12 had the October snow and then the late season one in western pa that left over 250k without power)

In any case the next target is Minnesota where Duluth and MSP could have a record late season snow, or close to it. Rain could cut into totals around MSP and the heaviest could stay south of Duluth, but give the cold that is going to be around the Easter bunny may have to tunnel through snow in some of these places given this is coming tomorrow into Thursday and some of it could stick around. Check out the latest GFS snow totals

Nice colors eh?

speaking of pretty colors.. Its midnight in Manhatten ( Sounds like a line from Springsteen song) its snowing and the radar looks like its got a ways to go

Couldnt get it snow in March.. so I guess its trying to make up for it.. ha ha

ciao for now

 

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Track the Snow As It Spreads Into the Northeast

Snow continues to push eastward, whitening areas in its path.