Unsettled Weather Impacts I-95 Corridor in the Northeast

GFS is likely not cold enough in Week 2 for two reasons:

1. Phase 1 of the MJO favors colder weather
2. Its normal error probably is catching up to it, trying to get rid of the trough so fast it does not pull in the arctic air mass that will follow (likely farther in than the surge down the Plains).

Look at the Day 7 GFS Operational, Ensemble and ECMWF:

 

The problem is likely over western Canada as the ECMWF handles this much differently

By the time Day 10 comes along, the differences are stark.

GFS Operational:

GFS Ensemble:

ECMWF:

In the 8-10, off the PSU site, we see the stark differences with the GFS in the middle and the Canadian right and ECWMF left. Of course in the GFS is right, then it was surrounded by incompetence, but chances are its more the monkey in the middle

Where the GFS may be scoring the coup is this weekend in New England, where it continues to show accumulating snow:

 

This would not be as bad as what heppened there in early May 1977 as the trees were out full blast for that event, and as of last week even in Providence there was little foliage on the trees. Its in the 60s in much of that area now, but shift the wind to the east and northeast and in comes the ocean air, taken temps down into the 30s tom night and then with the upper low cruising underneath..

Put it this way.. I saw it in the 60s here on Mothers day 2008 ( the mother of all mothers day storms on the Jersey shore late Sunday night and Monday with the hurricane force gusts as the low exploded) but it snowed here in central pa!

This looks colder… Sunday am

 

 

 

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