Here We Go Again!

Another storm – this one from the west should leave a strip of moderate to heavy snows from the central across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes to the snow weary Northern Mid Atlantic and northeast.

Frigid air follows Tuesday AM and then quickly another clipper and front brings more cold affecting the Midwest too.

The snows are heavy from Nebraska east.

It is chilly behind Friday’s redeveloping clipper.

It will be a very cold snowstorm with near to below zero temepratures at the back end.

How often do you see this on an NWS forecast – snow Monday night in Boston with lows -5F, in New York CIty with a low of 3F.

Snowstorm to Threaten East Coast Next Week

The path and strength of a storm Tuesday into Wednesday will determine which areas on the East Coast may be hit by snow.

Chances of an East Coast Snowstorm Increase

Good evening! Here is an updated model analysis regarding next week’s snowstorm. The chances are now higher for a storm, and I would say there is a 60-70% chance of it happening. First, let’s take a look at the 18z GFS at Hour 114. 

 

Areas north of the 0 BLUE LINE are below freezing, which means that those areas will be getting snow at this moment, according to the GFS. Roughly areas from I-20 northward get snow/winter precipitation. Here is the next frame, Hour 120, of the 18z GFS. 

 

Again, areas north of the 0 Blue Line are below freezing, so most of North Carolina, except the southeast corner, is in snow or wintry precipitation. However, the GFS then takes the system too far from the coast to produce snow further in Mid-Atlantic and New England. 

 

The Canadian model shows a scenario that seems a little weird. It has a double low scenario, with one weakening, and then another forming right off the coast. It has a tendency to often put up double lows on the map. regardless, in its scenario, it has the North Carolina and Virginia mountains, and a lot of Southern New England, in snow. 

 

Now, here is the 12z European. It shows a monster snowstorm, just like yesterday, so let’s take a look at a few frames. Below is Hour 120 on the European.

 

The purple dashed line you see on the above image is the freezing line. Everyone above that line is getting snow/wintry precipitation. Now take a look at what happens at the next frame (Hour 132).

 

There is some very heavy precipitation inside in the purple line. This means a very heavy mix or very heavy wet snow for places like Rocky Mount, NC. Also, the massive low pressure system now approaches the Northeast with some heavy precipitation. I do think this precip is a lot further west then it actually will be. I do not think areas west of Eastern West Virginia will get snow. Maybe a few flurries, but thats it. Now, here is the next frame, Hour 144. 

 

Look at that low in the Atlantic. Wow! It seems to be in the 960-970 mb range. Even though it is pretty far from the coast, it is so strong that it produces a lot of heavy snow along the coast. If this verifies, it actually means it would be a major blizzard. I personally do not think the European is quite right. The track and snow areas will probably be pretty similar to what the Euro shows, but everything will be actually weaker than what it shows. Does the potential exist for a system of this strength? Yes, obviously. However, I give it only a 10% chance of verifying. Perhaps a system with heights in the 990 millibar range is more realistic. 

 

Unlike the 2 storms that have been driven south this month, this is much more like a storm (next week) that should trend west and stronger with time. Therefore I think the swath of snow and the pressures you see on the ECWMF package are not yet west enough.

Control snow

Operational