Snow For Northeast; Blizzard Conditions Possible in New England

Ever Hear the song by the Monkees, The Girl I Knew Somewhere? Its on my list of the greatest haunting Heartache Songs ever ( Number 1, Jimmy Ruffins What Becomes of the Broken Hearted?) But at the risk of alienating alot of you, I know there are some of you that look at snow the way you may have looked at someone across a crowded room and know the fleeting heartache of something you would never even have a chance at.

Fortunately for me, and I am sure many of you ( I hope all) you have had the storm of your dreams at one time, and wound up with the girl of your dreams. Its funny you never know what tomorrow will bring. In any case As I look at Mt Holly radar, the date we are in , and remember those days I grew up on the Jersey shore, though this storm has missed many, it has a target in my heart. The fact is that one may never see the subject of that heartache song again, and I will never see a snowstorm where I grew up again. But one can look at it and see, in this case.. The Storm I knew Somewhere

That heavy band is coming right in on Somers Point NJ

 

The modeling has done a good job with this.. though we have the northwest system, the pulling in to the east was something that I could not pull the trigger on until today. Much later than all of you, but then again, its because of some of the other storms that we have seen that did not jump out. If I may, the last great storm I will ever see in Somers Point, the post Christmas storm of 2010 was a case in point, though years later the fog of the past alot of people remember it differently

 

But I am preparing our 90 day forecast and I have may no secret about our cold April. And I want to show you something here, that is very interesting. A classic case of linking past to present and using a model as a tool for the future.

The 3 very cold winters, 1977-1978, 1983-1984, 1995-1996 had very cold Marches that followed.

Look at those winters

 

Look at this winter

 

Look at the following Marches to the cold winters

 

Now look at this March

 

So the following Aprils

 

Precip

Hard to get it warm. Some shows up in the se, but by and large the areas that were coldest, stay cold.. and the west has cooled down.

 

The link is that the cold winters THAT HAVE COLD MARCHES. usually have cold Aprils. Its not the cold March, its the set of cold Marches where winters were very cold.

 

now we jump to the JMA forecast for April, with precip on top, the 500 and then the temps

 

Of course they are not exact, but they supply evidence that we have to look out for a cold April especially in the ares that were coldest in March, and the winter

Notes and asides:

If you listen this, think about me gazing at what is going on where I used to live