New England

Another Monday Storm And Winter Cold Deepens

Like last winter was historic for the Plains and Great Lakes, this winter (most notably February) is turning historic northeast and more winter like central.

We added 1 to 4 inches this past few days to the 50 plus inches in the 10 days ending early last week here in east central new England. We have had numerous single digit to sub zero mornings. Boston has averaged 10.5F below normal for the month to date.

The month has turned colder the first week back to the plains but with the most extreme northeast. Meanwhile it has been warm west. Rains came to northern California in the last few days.

Snow spreads into the area later Saturday and continues on and off through Monday.

Afte a few frigid days, another clipper followed Thursday followed by what in some areas could be a zub zero DAY mid-month and for many areas, one of the coldest spells in memory in the east. The maps speak for themselves.

GFS has a 30 to 40F below normal day on the GFS in the metro areas of the east for mid month.

The 6-10 amd 11-15 day ensembles are amazingly cold backing as JB suggested to the plains..

0 CommentsLeave a comment

STORM IS WILD FOR MANY, ONE OF THE TOP STORMS IN RHODE ISLAND HISTORY , NYC SNOW LOVERS DISAPPOINTED

Upper West side had 8.3 inches, Central Park as of 7 am 7.8 inches, the Bronx 9.9 inches, LGA had 11 inches to the east on Long Island Massapequa 14.2 inches, Islip 20.9 inches. Orient 28.5 inches and Mattituck 24.8 inches. It was still snowing all these locations so final amounts will rise at that time.

Further north and east it has been as promised quite a snowstorm. I have been up since maybe 4:30am with S+ and as near to zero visibility as I can remember in quite a while (50 yards). After easing off a bit (but still less than 1/4 mile, it is back to 1/8 or less as I write this.

We will see 36 inches+ in central New England. Worcester reported 25 inches this morning.

The HRRR 3km model from 12Z adds 17 inches to the close to 18 inches so far here and near a foot in Worcester.

The jackpot was supposed to be NYC and southeast New England. Eastern Long Island and central New England though were ground zero targets with the storm center developing maybe 100 miles east of forecast.

See the snow still flying at 18Z.

)

This is the most in a single storm I have seen here in my 30 years.

kind of like the GEM on what follows. The EC is an outlier with the storm next week among its ensemble members, many of which have strong arctic high pressure where the op run has a storm moving through southern New England. I think the storm is real but will track south and be a snow for DC, PHl, NYC.

It is followed by frigid air and at the end of the next week another storm likely snow for the northeast followed by more even colder affecting the central and then the east. Chicago will see sub zero cold and that air masss if as shown would threaten Florida.

0 CommentsLeave a comment

Could The ECMWF Be Right?

The big news about the run of the ECMWF is not the northeast snow… its the fact that it could even show that which should make folks understand that darn cold air is coming and its coming down the plains first. The “lock” for snow is the front range which should have the major late season event. in addition a big severe weather outbreak is on the way and its the kind of set up, with the clash of extremes, that could get the severe weather season alot of attention. Right now its remarkable again for how quiet its been but we have felt that late April and May would be more active than last year. Right now we are near the bottom for the date

The past 5 months have had the attempts at warming countered by major cold outbreaks. In a way what is looking like is about to happen is similar to the non blizzard weekend in early Feb….the trough this week underachieved relative to it major depth and the ECMWF 8-10 days before. However the source region of the air was not arctic.. this is and its coming full blast for the time of the year. But the tricky factor here is the fact we have 3 major upper features involved. At 72 hours we see the ECMWF with the first one coming out and this is the Denver snowstorm and starts the severe weather outbreak Sunday

The initial position is off the west coast and it rockets east, indicating the active southern stream is alive and kickng

by 72 hours that is already coming into the southern high plains

This is a big ticket severe weather outbreak Sunday into Monday as it lifts. Now here is where it starts getting real tricky as for the fate of the upstream areas. The short coming into the great basin came out of Alaska on the initial, so its from a different branch than what is obviously a fast southern branch. A look 48 hours later

has it dragging its heels a bit, but enough so cold air is charging out so much in front and the combination of it handing some energy off and the cold push way in front leads to the snow threat further east. However if the whole thing comes out and is lined up ( we have faced this problem before and some have come out, some dragged) then we look at even a bigger storm than the ECMWF has, and it has a heck of snow idea with this. But if we look at the 144 you see it does not come all the way in line and we wind up with a very strange look

Given the progression into the southwest of the next system, I would expect this to be further northeast along and with the northern branch, which ups the ante even more than what is one heck of a wild look to this model run. Look at the snowfall in 24 hour increments

48-72

Denver gets it Sunday

snow starts as you can see in the lakes as the trough pushes the cold air.. From Monday-Tuesday

But then the period where you saw that 120 feeding part of its energy northeast

Now one can imagine if all of that hooked up. The result would be more further west, but a heck an event anyway. The overall snow on the ECMWF through the entire period looks like this

The Canadian is more reasonable as the is the control run as they are weaker and further east.. both agree on the front range though!

Control

Control

Both of these are still impressive for this time of the year

one can see the JMA trying to phase this

This would certainly be the further west options back into the west side and into the Appalachians.

But there is alot on the table here and worth the watching..

Here is the forecast.. Headlines will be flying as far as the snow and cold Sunday into Monday with the severe weather too. And of course the usual suspects will be trying to use the same thing.. the WEATHER EVENT as evidence of the climate going wild, while the entire winter based on huge drivers seen before in past patterns ( and given the sun weakening the way it is…. look at this chart as far as that low geomagnetic we pointed out)

is somehow portrayed as just weather.

We live in a crazy world now. In any case for those of you that love crazy weather because you know its causes, you may be able to “enjoy” next week

Which is why I always say enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got

 

0 CommentsLeave a comment

Long Range New England Weather 4-3-14

The first round of rain is likely Friday night into early Saturday. It will be followed by fine weather Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Another storm system brings the threat of severe weather to the Southeastern United States on Monday, and rain, with the chance of a t-storm, to Southern New England Monday night. The rain may be heavy at times, but the system should be progressive enough to limit storm totals to an inch or less.

A cool shot in the middle of next week will be short-lived. There are some signs of a potential late-week warm-up, but we’re not quite sold on it yet. In the big picture, we think a lot of our weather from April 11-17 may come from Eastern Canada, which would prevent any big warm-ups during that time.

0 CommentsLeave a comment