Menacing Storm Outbreak Set to Begin in Central US

Good Evening!
Here are the short term and long term forecasts.

Short Term: A low pressure centered over the central Plains will cause a batch of showers to move through the northern plains, with a chance for severe weather in the warm sector across the central Plains. The warm front extends across the nation to the east coast, and showers will ride along it into tonight. First batch is moving through the Northeast now, and another coming through the Great Lakes. Overnight the rains showers should continue to move eastward with some new rain showers near the gulf coast. Tomorrow will be much of the same, the low will still be in the Northern Plains, leading to another severe threat for tomorrow. The warm front will continually work northward through the day bringing with it a well needed rush of warm air and calming weather for the Eastern US.

Long Term: A pretty active patter will set up across the nation heading into the weekend period. For tomorrow, a cold front will shift eastward across the central Plains with severe weather possible from the gulf coast all the way to Minnesota along the front. The highest coverage of storms should be near the area of low pressure across Iowa and Minnesota, but any storm that develops will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. The front will sag southward and stall over the Ohio Valley by Friday into Saturday, with low chances of severe weather both days across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee valley. Storms could work their way into the Northeast this weekend as warmer air surges northward with this system. Looking farther out in time, it looks like some significantly warm air may affect all of the Northeast (widespread 80s and 90s) within the next two weeks. Get ready, summer is almost here!

Unsettled Weather Impacts I-95 Corridor in the Northeast

GFS is likely not cold enough in Week 2 for two reasons:

1. Phase 1 of the MJO favors colder weather
2. Its normal error probably is catching up to it, trying to get rid of the trough so fast it does not pull in the arctic air mass that will follow (likely farther in than the surge down the Plains).

Look at the Day 7 GFS Operational, Ensemble and ECMWF:

 

The problem is likely over western Canada as the ECMWF handles this much differently

By the time Day 10 comes along, the differences are stark.

GFS Operational:

GFS Ensemble:

ECMWF:

In the 8-10, off the PSU site, we see the stark differences with the GFS in the middle and the Canadian right and ECWMF left. Of course in the GFS is right, then it was surrounded by incompetence, but chances are its more the monkey in the middle

Where the GFS may be scoring the coup is this weekend in New England, where it continues to show accumulating snow:

 

This would not be as bad as what heppened there in early May 1977 as the trees were out full blast for that event, and as of last week even in Providence there was little foliage on the trees. Its in the 60s in much of that area now, but shift the wind to the east and northeast and in comes the ocean air, taken temps down into the 30s tom night and then with the upper low cruising underneath..

Put it this way.. I saw it in the 60s here on Mothers day 2008 ( the mother of all mothers day storms on the Jersey shore late Sunday night and Monday with the hurricane force gusts as the low exploded) but it snowed here in central pa!

This looks colder… Sunday am

 

 

 

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Warmer Weather Returns This Week

To say the least, most of us are probably sick and tired of winter by this point. The good news is, a warm-up is on the way! Warm temperatures will return to the Northeast beginning Monday,, with the warmest weather coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s a look at a couple of the forecast model high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Track the Snow As It Spreads Into the Northeast

Snow continues to push eastward, whitening areas in its path.

Snow Returns to Midwest, Northeast Following Summerlike Warmth

Going to use some of the ECMWF ensembles showing the Deterministic vs ensemble to make my point on the issue that would drive home the shock of one of the greatest April Cold Fronts I have ever seen. Part of that was because it got so warm out in front of this.

The Texas Rangers may play their coldest game ever this evening, at least with wind chills. The temperature at this writing was back to 52, but wind chills were in the 30s.

Before I show some of these selected sites. a word about the lack of severe weather. The intense rains in Texas yesterday probably cut alot of the energy needed further north for a major event. Whenever heavy rains go off relatively far south, it causes problems with severe weather. Part of the reason that may happen is because when warm and cold are swapping back and forth so much, it creates a situation where warm has to get re-established and the wind that is doing that may also be helping to take out some of the instability. In any case the tornado drought continues. The big tornado seasons are usually cold in the WEST AND NORTH, but daggers of cold frequenting southern areas blunt this as the south needs to be warm for more than a couple of days. In any case we have had none today and at 89 tornadoes, we are only 15 above the record low through this date.

Now to the “problem” whenever I see ensembles with more snow than operationals in some places it raises my eyebrows that one of the runs before the onset of snow is going to jump the snow amounts higher. Lets look at a wes to east cross section here.. Cleveland Pit Dubois, EWR Boston

Cleveland. The ensembles are a bit lower, but they are very close to the operational, around 3 inches! I ma using the lake front

The upslope areas of the Appalachians are seeing higher ensemble than operational amounts

Pit

Duj

Now we get serious. The modeling is snowy north of I80 in the ne and all through most of New England. But look at Newark NJ

Even the ensemble is over an inch

Then to Boston

over 2.5

Can you imagine if this happens, with temps in the 20s later tomorrow night and again Wed night.. to people that have had their landscapers put in flowers for Easter?

Then there is further south, where a major freeze could occur deep into the heart of Dixie The GFS

at Little Rock

Tuscaloosa

Greensboro

Is it the greatest April Front ever.. 24 hour drops like this. Dont know, but its got to be up there. The biggest problem I have is digging into all Ryan Maue has created to look at things like this. A nice problem to have!

Could The ECMWF Be Right?

The big news about the run of the ECMWF is not the northeast snow… its the fact that it could even show that which should make folks understand that darn cold air is coming and its coming down the plains first. The “lock” for snow is the front range which should have the major late season event. in addition a big severe weather outbreak is on the way and its the kind of set up, with the clash of extremes, that could get the severe weather season alot of attention. Right now its remarkable again for how quiet its been but we have felt that late April and May would be more active than last year. Right now we are near the bottom for the date

The past 5 months have had the attempts at warming countered by major cold outbreaks. In a way what is looking like is about to happen is similar to the non blizzard weekend in early Feb….the trough this week underachieved relative to it major depth and the ECMWF 8-10 days before. However the source region of the air was not arctic.. this is and its coming full blast for the time of the year. But the tricky factor here is the fact we have 3 major upper features involved. At 72 hours we see the ECMWF with the first one coming out and this is the Denver snowstorm and starts the severe weather outbreak Sunday

The initial position is off the west coast and it rockets east, indicating the active southern stream is alive and kickng

by 72 hours that is already coming into the southern high plains

This is a big ticket severe weather outbreak Sunday into Monday as it lifts. Now here is where it starts getting real tricky as for the fate of the upstream areas. The short coming into the great basin came out of Alaska on the initial, so its from a different branch than what is obviously a fast southern branch. A look 48 hours later

has it dragging its heels a bit, but enough so cold air is charging out so much in front and the combination of it handing some energy off and the cold push way in front leads to the snow threat further east. However if the whole thing comes out and is lined up ( we have faced this problem before and some have come out, some dragged) then we look at even a bigger storm than the ECMWF has, and it has a heck of snow idea with this. But if we look at the 144 you see it does not come all the way in line and we wind up with a very strange look

Given the progression into the southwest of the next system, I would expect this to be further northeast along and with the northern branch, which ups the ante even more than what is one heck of a wild look to this model run. Look at the snowfall in 24 hour increments

48-72

Denver gets it Sunday

snow starts as you can see in the lakes as the trough pushes the cold air.. From Monday-Tuesday

But then the period where you saw that 120 feeding part of its energy northeast

Now one can imagine if all of that hooked up. The result would be more further west, but a heck an event anyway. The overall snow on the ECMWF through the entire period looks like this

The Canadian is more reasonable as the is the control run as they are weaker and further east.. both agree on the front range though!

Control

Control

Both of these are still impressive for this time of the year

one can see the JMA trying to phase this

This would certainly be the further west options back into the west side and into the Appalachians.

But there is alot on the table here and worth the watching..

Here is the forecast.. Headlines will be flying as far as the snow and cold Sunday into Monday with the severe weather too. And of course the usual suspects will be trying to use the same thing.. the WEATHER EVENT as evidence of the climate going wild, while the entire winter based on huge drivers seen before in past patterns ( and given the sun weakening the way it is…. look at this chart as far as that low geomagnetic we pointed out)

is somehow portrayed as just weather.

We live in a crazy world now. In any case for those of you that love crazy weather because you know its causes, you may be able to “enjoy” next week

Which is why I always say enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got

 

Flooding, Tornado Threats Continue in South

Damaging winds and heavy rain will continue from Northern Florida into far southeastern North Carolina into Monday evening.

Northeast Flood Risk, Interior Wintry Mix Continues

Heard that the Cherry Blossoms will be the latest in 40 years this year peaking in DC this year. They arent stupid. Getting Shredded by sleet or having snowflakes the size of canned hams landing on you and trying to drag you down cant be fun. Its been snowing around DC this afternoon and the ECMWF is saying this band of heavy rain in eastern PA is going to cause some problems.. with whack a mole snow later tonight and tom am around NYC and southern New England

This storm has been as nutty in its sudden appearance of snow as you see but with the energy now coming into the new storm offshore this may be a pretty good idea the next 12-18 hours. The 12z runs of all models had none in agreement as to where it would snow hard. They all had a band, but in different places..

To the main aspect here. The major storm pulling out of the south later in the week has a look where we can get that 65 wet bulb and intersect it with sub 1008 mb pressures and come up with a severe weather area for Wed and Thur..lets outline it at 00z Thu with the 60 DP on the ECMWF

Thur pm

Lets see how things turn out with this.

The storm is tricky after it goes by, because if it slows it means the storm next week may be further south. In fact I would look for that to adjust east with time. The day 5 500 has this

That positive trying to pop north of it is trouble. For it means that this may slow and deepen on day 7.5

I would look for a stronger positive over the lakes and Ontario forcing alot of the jet and development further south with the day 8-10 storm. Think about the back and forth we have been seeing.. storms moving further north, following by systems further south. ITS BEEN SNOWING IN DC YET AGAIN TODAY! This was supposed to be a simple trough marching through with nothing like this. The phase 3 MJO the coming week is impressive

This argues for a very suppressed jet and strong west east trough across the southern US, So while there may be storm next Tuesday up toward the lakes, if there is a bomb on the Va coast, it would not surprise me in the least. In any case, the march out of winter described yesterday ( and again it mainly for areas that may have the kind of cold around April 7th they last saw that late in 2007.. I am very worried about a freeze all the way to the I-20 corridor in 8-10 days) has some rough sledding in front of it. Chicago to Boston, probably NYC, Philly ( dare I say DC????) have probably not seen their last snow.

Heh I might be right off the bat tonight around NYC anyway ha ha

ciao for now

Northeast, Midwest Face Midweek Winter Storm

Winter and substantial snow will make a comeback across the Midwest and Northeast at midweek.

Storm Threat Next Week

The snow/ice storm coming for the western and central Carolinas is covered in today’s blog

GFS Ensembles do not disappoint with their idea of a reload of cold in Week 2.

Days 1-6:

 

Days 6-11:

 

 

Days 11-16:

 

The ECMWF illustrates the point I was making about the GFS not understanding the system that it’s dragging its heels on. When the ECMWF, notorious for dragging its feet in the Southwest, is taking systems out, you have to sit up and take notice. Consequently, the difference between the GFS at 180 hours

 

 

and the ECMWF is stark!

 

 

 

 

At 12z on the anniversary of the great March 1993 superstorm, its depiction of the 500 mb trough is not as strong as what I am worried about.

 

 

On the model, snowfall with this is in the day 7-9 period:

 

The snowfall in the Carolinas is at the front of the period, with the storm moving by to the south over the next few days.

In any case, a big ticket wintry weather event is very much a possibility next week, to go along with a pattern that will yield Week 2 temperatures more normal for January than March!