snow
Another Monday Storm And Winter Cold Deepens
Like last winter was historic for the Plains and Great Lakes, this winter (most notably February) is turning historic northeast and more winter like central.
We added 1 to 4 inches this past few days to the 50 plus inches in the 10 days ending early last week here in east central new England. We have had numerous single digit to sub zero mornings. Boston has averaged 10.5F below normal for the month to date.
The month has turned colder the first week back to the plains but with the most extreme northeast. Meanwhile it has been warm west. Rains came to northern California in the last few days.
Snow spreads into the area later Saturday and continues on and off through Monday.
.png)
Afte a few frigid days, another clipper followed Thursday followed by what in some areas could be a zub zero DAY mid-month and for many areas, one of the coldest spells in memory in the east. The maps speak for themselves.
.png)
GFS has a 30 to 40F below normal day on the GFS in the metro areas of the east for mid month.
.png)
The 6-10 amd 11-15 day ensembles are amazingly cold backing as JB suggested to the plains..
Here We Go Again!
Another storm – this one from the west should leave a strip of moderate to heavy snows from the central across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes to the snow weary Northern Mid Atlantic and northeast.
Frigid air follows Tuesday AM and then quickly another clipper and front brings more cold affecting the Midwest too.
The snows are heavy from Nebraska east.
It is chilly behind Friday’s redeveloping clipper.
It will be a very cold snowstorm with near to below zero temepratures at the back end.
How often do you see this on an NWS forecast – snow Monday night in Boston with lows -5F, in New York CIty with a low of 3F.
Winter Storm to Snarl Travel From DC to Boston
The models pump up the weekend storm coming out of the Gulf states which tends to suppress the tracks of the follow up clippers.It will be a frigid week in the northeast and then by months end into February much of the country back to the central. With the very deep snowpack in Quebec, any fresh snow will enhance the cold in the northeast. The storm track is typical of an east QBO weak El Nino Modoki. February 1969 became an exception with the big 5 day storm in eastern New England.
In 10 days another Gulf storm is on the maps and has to be watched.
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
See to 4 to 5 feet of snow in Canada to northeast Maine.
.png)
Philly to Boston May Get Biggest Snow of Season
The GFS has come around to a snowy transition to cold.
The first storm coming out of south is a fast mover and without a high to the north pumping moisture west, the northern shield will be slightly restricted.
It sees a clipper coming south and then east through the Midwest.
This will redevelop and this time with the high to the north, the snow shield to the north looks a little like the storms of 2013.
.png)
More snows come with the big arctic front that will follow.
.png)
With fresh snow and a northerly drainage, this means sub zero cold.
The total snow from the GFS is impressive.
.png)
The 10 day period may rank as one of the coldest in years, coming at the coldest time climatologically.
The last five days of the month on the EC ensembles show the cold plume.
.png)
The Canadian and EC have backed off slighly.
.png)
.png)
Major Snowstorm May Hit DC to NYC, Boston Saturday
After the Thanksgiving storm, the major metropolitan areas of the east has seen a roller coast ride in tempratures with spells of bitter cold and mild interludes. Storms have mainly cut to the lakes or inland bringing rain for the cities and rain or ice for the suburbs.
The next 10 days, that changes. The question is mainly how far inland the snow goes. Its mainly snow or no snow. Even today a low is brewing over the Ohio Valley that is bringing snows to Ohio and soon Pennsylvania, New Jersey and perhaps Long Island before speeding out to sea.
UPDATE: Snowfall from the NAM 12z
The 06Z run had th storm still moving through.
The storm we see in the southern plains bringing snows to western Texas, is entering the Mid Atlantic.
The NAM has it off the New Jersey coast Saturday.
Snow, still going then by 84 hours shows significant snow for DC, PHL and NYC and beginning in Boston.
.png)
The ECMWF has the storm tomorrow brushing the south coast on its way out.
.png)
The EC has the storm cranking Saturday.
.png)
The EC Sunday has a diving clipper on its heel.
.png)
The redeveloping storm then turns north.
.png)
.png)
The ECMWF has a storm along the arctic front.
.png)
The EC snow totals has all the major metros under the gun.
.png)
The GFS at 00Z brought the snows into southern New England tonight.
It has a formidable storm this weekend.
And it had the Tuesday storm too.
.png)
It also dumped on all the metros.
.png)
Cold deepens afterwards.
.png)
Unsettled Weather Impacts I-95 Corridor in the Northeast
GFS is likely not cold enough in Week 2 for two reasons:
- Phase 1 of the MJO favors colder weather
- Its normal error probably is catching up to it, trying to get rid of the trough so fast it does not pull in the arctic air mass that will follow (likely farther in than the surge down the Plains).
Look at the Day 7 GFS Operational, Ensemble and ECMWF:
.png)
The problem is likely over western Canada as the ECMWF handles this much differently
.png)
By the time Day 10 comes along, the differences are stark.
GFS Operational:
GFS Ensemble:
.png)
ECMWF:
In the 8-10, off the PSU site, we see the stark differences with the GFS in the middle and the Canadian right and ECWMF left. Of course in the GFS is right, then it was surrounded by incompetence, but chances are its more the monkey in the middle
.gif)
Where the GFS may be scoring the coup is this weekend in New England, where it continues to show accumulating snow:
This would not be as bad as what heppened there in early May 1977 as the trees were out full blast for that event, and as of last week even in Providence there was little foliage on the trees. Its in the 60s in much of that area now, but shift the wind to the east and northeast and in comes the ocean air, taken temps down into the 30s tom night and then with the upper low cruising underneath..
Put it this way.. I saw it in the 60s here on Mothers day 2008 ( the mother of all mothers day storms on the Jersey shore late Sunday night and Monday with the hurricane force gusts as the low exploded) but it snowed here in central pa!
This looks colder… Sunday am
Long Range New England Weather 4-24-14
According to the EURO, some areas could see 4-6″ of rain within a 5-7 day period! While 5-7″ of rain may not seem like a lot over a 5-7 day period, it would just be like getting 40-60″ or more in a 5-7 day period, so just be thankful!
Storm to Spoil Spring for Millions Next Week in Midwest, East
A large storm will form over the eastern half of the nation next week and will bring a swath of unsettled conditions for days.
The Weather Bull 