Another Monday Storm And Winter Cold Deepens

Like last winter was historic for the Plains and Great Lakes, this winter (most notably February) is turning historic northeast and more winter like central.

We added 1 to 4 inches this past few days to the 50 plus inches in the 10 days ending early last week here in east central new England. We have had numerous single digit to sub zero mornings. Boston has averaged 10.5F below normal for the month to date.

The month has turned colder the first week back to the plains but with the most extreme northeast. Meanwhile it has been warm west. Rains came to northern California in the last few days.

Snow spreads into the area later Saturday and continues on and off through Monday.

Afte a few frigid days, another clipper followed Thursday followed by what in some areas could be a zub zero DAY mid-month and for many areas, one of the coldest spells in memory in the east. The maps speak for themselves.

GFS has a 30 to 40F below normal day on the GFS in the metro areas of the east for mid month.

The 6-10 amd 11-15 day ensembles are amazingly cold backing as JB suggested to the plains..

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Here We Go Again!

Another storm – this one from the west should leave a strip of moderate to heavy snows from the central across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes to the snow weary Northern Mid Atlantic and northeast.

Frigid air follows Tuesday AM and then quickly another clipper and front brings more cold affecting the Midwest too.

The snows are heavy from Nebraska east.

It is chilly behind Friday’s redeveloping clipper.

It will be a very cold snowstorm with near to below zero temepratures at the back end.

How often do you see this on an NWS forecast – snow Monday night in Boston with lows -5F, in New York CIty with a low of 3F.

Philly to Boston May Get Biggest Snow of Season

The GFS has come around to a snowy transition to cold.

The first storm coming out of south is a fast mover and without a high to the north pumping moisture west, the northern shield will be slightly restricted.

It sees a clipper coming south and then east through the Midwest.

This will redevelop and this time with the high to the north, the snow shield to the north looks a little like the storms of 2013.

More snows come with the big arctic front that will follow.

With fresh snow and a northerly drainage, this means sub zero cold.

The total snow from the GFS is impressive.

The 10 day period may rank as one of the coldest in years, coming at the coldest time climatologically.

The last five days of the month on the EC ensembles show the cold plume.

The Canadian and EC have backed off slighly.

Major Snowstorm May Hit DC to NYC, Boston Saturday

After the Thanksgiving storm, the major metropolitan areas of the east has seen a roller coast ride in tempratures with spells of bitter cold and mild interludes. Storms have mainly cut to the lakes or inland bringing rain for the cities and rain or ice for the suburbs.

The next 10 days, that changes. The question is mainly how far inland the snow goes. Its mainly snow or no snow. Even today a low is brewing over the Ohio Valley that is bringing snows to Ohio and soon Pennsylvania, New Jersey and perhaps Long Island before speeding out to sea.

UPDATE: Snowfall from the NAM 12z

The 06Z run had th storm still moving through.

The storm we see in the southern plains bringing snows to western Texas, is entering the Mid Atlantic.

The NAM has it off the New Jersey coast Saturday.

Snow, still going then by 84 hours shows significant snow for DC, PHL and NYC and beginning in Boston.

The ECMWF has the storm tomorrow brushing the south coast on its way out.

The EC has the storm cranking Saturday.

The EC Sunday has a diving clipper on its heel.

The redeveloping storm then turns north.

The ECMWF has a storm along the arctic front.

The EC snow totals has all the major metros under the gun.

The GFS at 00Z brought the snows into southern New England tonight.

It has a formidable storm this weekend.

And it had the Tuesday storm too.

It also dumped on all the metros.

Cold deepens afterwards.

Snowstorm to Threaten East Coast Next Week

The path and strength of a storm Tuesday into Wednesday will determine which areas on the East Coast may be hit by snow.

Winter Continues Through March for Many

Perhaps that should have been the title. But look at this map. NOAA is using a scheme called “Divisional Ranking” to show the public how temperatures were. I have 2 objections to this as to why this is deceiving.

 

1) The shading of the below normal temps is nowhere near as distinct as the shading of the above. You have to look twice to see it.

2) The other,and while this may be a valid method, it is very deceptive against reality. The divisional ranking scheme is such that , for instance, Hartford CT at 5.5 BELOW NORMAL is in the Near average, as well as NYC around 3.8 BELOW NORMAL. While we see LasVegas and a whole host of cities in the southwest at around 4 above normal in the much above? I understand what this is saying, because of the long nights where its dry its hard to have it this warm ( though Las Vegas and some of the other southwest cities are warmer now because they have become major urban heat islands compared to what they were 30-50 years ago). But how many of you in the northeast believe this was near normal or just a bit below? So using this method is deceptive. Unless you understand math, you are thinking Chicago at 10 below normal is in the same ball park as the southwest, which is nowhere near as warm as it was cold

Look at the actual temps, every 1.1C ( close to 2F and you tell me if what these people are doing is anything short of a deceptive practice to make it not look as cold as it was. BAD ENOUGH the temp distribution, but the shade of the colors should make it clear. And by the way, this was sent to me from someone at a prominent meteorology school, who shall remain nameless given the political climate we are in today.

This is classic. If NOAA put out that map above with actual temperatures , do you think it would have the lack of effect as someone glancing at what they did with the other chart, especially since we saw their winter forecast and the reality of what actually happened

Takes all the fun out of this:

Perhaps if this happens it would get New England, given the way NOAA is playing with divisional rankings, into the above normal for snowfall

Snowstorm to Evolve Into a Blizzard in New England

Good evening! Here is the Weather Bull Snow Forecast for the upcoming snowstorm in the Northeast. We have shifted some areas north, and also included an 7-14″ area. This is a very big late-season snowstorm.

 

The wearing of the green is still threatened by the falling of the white

And we have the ECMWF operational and control back to the big snows ideas for next week

 

 Notes and asides. Blizzard conditions develop n ohio and western New York tom pm/eve. So I like this!

This is one heck of a storm. In addition severe weather is likely in the mid atlantic states tomorrow Looks spot on to me

Storm Threat Next Week

The snow/ice storm coming for the western and central Carolinas is covered in today’s blog

GFS Ensembles do not disappoint with their idea of a reload of cold in Week 2.

Days 1-6:

 

Days 6-11:

 

 

Days 11-16:

 

The ECMWF illustrates the point I was making about the GFS not understanding the system that it’s dragging its heels on. When the ECMWF, notorious for dragging its feet in the Southwest, is taking systems out, you have to sit up and take notice. Consequently, the difference between the GFS at 180 hours

 

 

and the ECMWF is stark!

 

 

 

 

At 12z on the anniversary of the great March 1993 superstorm, its depiction of the 500 mb trough is not as strong as what I am worried about.

 

 

On the model, snowfall with this is in the day 7-9 period:

 

The snowfall in the Carolinas is at the front of the period, with the storm moving by to the south over the next few days.

In any case, a big ticket wintry weather event is very much a possibility next week, to go along with a pattern that will yield Week 2 temperatures more normal for January than March!