April 18.. the ice is almost gone on Erie
April 18 11 am. 35 degrees in the Poconos patches of snow on the ground
April 18.. Rhode Island is behind central Pa as far as foliage.
Just journeyed to my mom and dads house in RI. The foliage is behind, but more so in New England than pa.
The promise of warmth over the lake and northeast we saw last week on the GFS ensembles is getting dashed again. A strong trough will move through the northeast the middle of next week and cold air sweeps through the lakes into the northeast, cutting the surge of spring and summer out of the southern plains that is coming east. That will be in place though for the major trough to lift through the warm air over the plains for the severe weather outbreak the middle of next week. But sudden shortening of the wavelengths means that the north south ridge ensembles showed.. and again I think alot of people do not understand the ensemble is not a forecast like a single run, its a blend of many model runs.. and what may be a ridge north south very often is a fight in the model where a cluster has many members spread all over the place, as we get closer to the time in question, gravitate toward a single solution. The danger is that the northern ridge is the stronger and getting stuck underneath is the trough
Before looking at that. I heard a weather channel forecaster on the New York outlet refer to tropical downpours in the se tomorrow.
Its going to rain heavily but TROPICAL? WITH TEMPS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL IN APRIL
You may think, Derek why are you picking on someone. Its systemic in my business. I heard a forecast here Monday on the air from a guy happy talking a turn to cooler for Tuesday… he was forecasting windy and cooler with temps in the 40s in the afternoon. a) It was 83 the day before b) it was in the 70s the day he was on..on noon. c) even if it was in the 40s with a leftover shower as he had.. with wind, it feels 40s lower. Never mind the next day it fell into the 30s with wind chills in the 20 and snow in the air after 3 pm.
My point is the communication is important. Downpours yes Tropical.. with temps in the 40s and 50s on an Easter Weekend that is late in the southeast US? Seriously
Now here is the wild thing. If this is classified Sunday or Monday once well off the coast , it would not surprise me. So I guess if that happens you can say…see tropical. But that 500 mb by Easter afternoon where the upper feature is weakening
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There is an area of gales but no tight circulation yet forecasted
And yes its going to rain hard.
But I would reserve the tropical downpours for temps in the 70s..
Its like the reason its snowing more is because its warmer.. If we are going to call a storm with ne gales and temps 20-25 below normal in April tropical downpours… what hope is there
Now the 500 mb shows a deep trough in the gulf of Alaska at 72 hours
So guess what happens over the northeast
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That trough goes into the west ( the one offshore) but replacing it is the trough coming through the Aleutians. Notice the major flip in the heights in Greenland. So that is going to be a problem. the western trough lifts with the severe weather worry then runs into the block coming back
180 hour
222
And the reload starts anew as the next step would be take the ridge back again and worry about the trough redeepening
Sudden shortening.. and the cold still available. while the surge does come out, it gets beaten back yet again
ciao for now
The Weather Bull 