Menacing Storm Outbreak Set to Begin in Central US

Good Evening!
Here are the short term and long term forecasts.

Short Term: A low pressure centered over the central Plains will cause a batch of showers to move through the northern plains, with a chance for severe weather in the warm sector across the central Plains. The warm front extends across the nation to the east coast, and showers will ride along it into tonight. First batch is moving through the Northeast now, and another coming through the Great Lakes. Overnight the rains showers should continue to move eastward with some new rain showers near the gulf coast. Tomorrow will be much of the same, the low will still be in the Northern Plains, leading to another severe threat for tomorrow. The warm front will continually work northward through the day bringing with it a well needed rush of warm air and calming weather for the Eastern US.

Long Term: A pretty active patter will set up across the nation heading into the weekend period. For tomorrow, a cold front will shift eastward across the central Plains with severe weather possible from the gulf coast all the way to Minnesota along the front. The highest coverage of storms should be near the area of low pressure across Iowa and Minnesota, but any storm that develops will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. The front will sag southward and stall over the Ohio Valley by Friday into Saturday, with low chances of severe weather both days across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee valley. Storms could work their way into the Northeast this weekend as warmer air surges northward with this system. Looking farther out in time, it looks like some significantly warm air may affect all of the Northeast (widespread 80s and 90s) within the next two weeks. Get ready, summer is almost here!

Northeast Flood Risk, Interior Wintry Mix Continues

Heard that the Cherry Blossoms will be the latest in 40 years this year peaking in DC this year. They arent stupid. Getting Shredded by sleet or having snowflakes the size of canned hams landing on you and trying to drag you down cant be fun. Its been snowing around DC this afternoon and the ECMWF is saying this band of heavy rain in eastern PA is going to cause some problems.. with whack a mole snow later tonight and tom am around NYC and southern New England

This storm has been as nutty in its sudden appearance of snow as you see but with the energy now coming into the new storm offshore this may be a pretty good idea the next 12-18 hours. The 12z runs of all models had none in agreement as to where it would snow hard. They all had a band, but in different places..

To the main aspect here. The major storm pulling out of the south later in the week has a look where we can get that 65 wet bulb and intersect it with sub 1008 mb pressures and come up with a severe weather area for Wed and Thur..lets outline it at 00z Thu with the 60 DP on the ECMWF

Thur pm

Lets see how things turn out with this.

The storm is tricky after it goes by, because if it slows it means the storm next week may be further south. In fact I would look for that to adjust east with time. The day 5 500 has this

That positive trying to pop north of it is trouble. For it means that this may slow and deepen on day 7.5

I would look for a stronger positive over the lakes and Ontario forcing alot of the jet and development further south with the day 8-10 storm. Think about the back and forth we have been seeing.. storms moving further north, following by systems further south. ITS BEEN SNOWING IN DC YET AGAIN TODAY! This was supposed to be a simple trough marching through with nothing like this. The phase 3 MJO the coming week is impressive

This argues for a very suppressed jet and strong west east trough across the southern US, So while there may be storm next Tuesday up toward the lakes, if there is a bomb on the Va coast, it would not surprise me in the least. In any case, the march out of winter described yesterday ( and again it mainly for areas that may have the kind of cold around April 7th they last saw that late in 2007.. I am very worried about a freeze all the way to the I-20 corridor in 8-10 days) has some rough sledding in front of it. Chicago to Boston, probably NYC, Philly ( dare I say DC????) have probably not seen their last snow.

Heh I might be right off the bat tonight around NYC anyway ha ha

ciao for now