Winter Storm to Snarl Travel From DC to Boston

The models pump up the weekend storm coming out of the Gulf states which tends to suppress the tracks of the follow up clippers.It will be a frigid week in the northeast and then by months end into February much of the country back to the central. With the very deep snowpack in Quebec, any fresh snow will enhance the cold in the northeast. The storm track is typical of an east QBO weak El Nino Modoki. February 1969 became an exception with the big 5 day storm in eastern New England.

In 10 days another Gulf storm is on the maps and has to be watched.

See to 4 to 5 feet of snow in Canada to northeast Maine.

New England, Canada Blizzard to Halt Travel

A blizzard could slow travel, cut power, close schools and cause significant disruptions to daily routines.

Midweek Meteorological Bomb

In a way this storm reminds me of Sandy. Not because of the impact (hopefully) in the United States, but because we have talked about it for a LONG time. You may remember we first mentioned this storm during last Monday’s Long Range Forecast. It has looked like a meteorological (nuclear) bomb for a few days, and the models are not backing off their predictions of a sea level pressure similar to a strong category three hurricane. We are playing with a blow torch, indeed.

This is a forecast that could change considerably in the next 24 hours. Most recent runs of the Canadian global and NAM hi-res model shifted west, with a bigger impact in SNE than they were forecasting in the past few runs. The 18Z NAM predicts 5-6″ of snow in Providence, 10″ in New Bedford, and 12-20″ on Cape Cod, with the potential for hurricane-force wind gusts on Cape Cod and the islands!

Thankfully, the ECMWF stayed solid with a track that has some impact, but not an overwhelming one, in RI, and a blizzard for Cape Cod and the islands. That has been our prediction from the start, and, even though we nudged our snow forecast totals down a bit (partly out of boredom?), the first map may be closer to correct than the most recent map, but we’re not going to start bouncing back and forth every few hours to split hairs on 2-4″ and 3-6″ forecasts. If tonight’s runs call for a change, we’ll make it.

 

 

Spring Blizzard to Graze New England, Slam Canada

A blizzard could slow travel, cut power, close schools and cause significant disruptions to daily routines.

Spring Blizzard Threatens to Swipe Eastern New England

As of this writing, and though there looks to be a bit of an eastward drift of the models… I have no changes.

The call is for the center of the storm to be near 40 north and 70 west, sometime between 06z and 18z Wednesday, Here is the method behind the madness

The 12z March 22 ECMWF forecast for 06z Wednesday had this:

This had a 985 low near 36 north and 69 west, but the appendage northwest to where I believe the true center will be. Now lets look at the current forecast for the same time ( ECWMF) IT PULLS A FUJIWARA watch the northwest system move east, the eastern system swing up.. I dont know that I have seen something like this, so I am having a lot of problems thinking this can happen.

60hr

66 hours

combined at 72 hours.. with Sandy like intensity ( 945 mb) about 150 ene of where I think the center will be)

At 60 hrs, Both centers are stronger, but closer together. The southeastern system has trended a bit west, The northern center a bit east. But this is the problem, One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why. If we look at the 60 hour 500 mb, valid 00z March 26 the trough is still well back, and the “tucking” of the upper height lines argues for the western system. As I have pointed out, this is over the warm bend in the SST for one and for 2) likely where the TRUE arctic front is. So the strongest height falls are hitting the area where the water is warmest and the true arctic front is. The model is trying to develop the convective feedback system on the Polar front to the southeast. Of course if it is right, I am wrong about what I see to be a 1-2 foot storm southeast of the Boston to Bridgeport line with 6 -12 PHL to Bridgeport in the crucial corridor. But the 500 mb looks like this:

You can see it starting some kind of warm core feed back where it bends the red 540Hgt line. However the place where the focus of the vort packing is located is right off the va capes

Here is the 60 hour

66 hour

Its between this time and 72 hours, 6 hours, that the entire system spins up to the east

You basically have the model spinning up a warm core system from the southeastern low, which is suspect.. The 500 changes dramatically from the 60 hour to 72 so the big picture looks like this

That “pulls” the storm east

Even so the snowfall at 10-1 ratios is impressive for late march and not that far away from my idea, and if all this works out, the most likely solution

Now consider this: The way all this happens is the initial snowband plainly in the I-95 corridor and simply amplifies stronger and stronger as the northwest system develops, and the system southeast of it is an appendage THAT GETS PULLED INTO IT? The models all are saying the northwest system gets pulled into the southeast system, which develops way out there. And I see that.. see how I am dead wrong. But there is a) no confluence in front of this by 60 hours.. so why is the warming off shore not going to proceed around the northwest center. If the low is weaker.. by several mb then the northwest storm is the storm! So the net result for now is to stay where I am .. I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out

For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see.

Here we are, late March and look at this. And given the pattern I am seeing through April 15, while warming is coming, so is blocking and with plenty of cold holding in central Canada this may not be the last threat. Not like i hasnt happened before.. 1982,1983, 1972. 1997 etc as examples

Whether this comes or not.. the fact that after this winter, the cold this week and this threat continues to show how wild this winter was.

SPRING SNOWSTORM MAY TARGET CAROLINAS TO MAINE

The potential for a spring snowstorm, along with blizzard conditions in New England, is being monitored.

Computer Model Trends: A Midweek Bomb

A meteorological bomb is defined as a storm where the central pressure drops at least 24mb in 24 hours. The storm that develops in the Atlantic Ocean next week will be explosive. If some models are correct, you can forget about an average of 1mb/hour, this storm may deepen at 2mb/hour over 24 hours! Let’s call it nuclear.

Those who have followed me for a while know that I like to throw around the phrase “playing with fire” when referring to these big storms that are just far enough offshore to not look like a major impact in Southern New England. With this one we are playing with a blowtorch. If it comes any closer than the current consensus forecast it will be a major blizzard from I-95 east to Cape Cod and the islands. As it is, this will likely be a blizzard for the Cape and islands.

The computer model trend over night was a nudge to the west over yesterday’s run. As currently projected, I think it’s a 3-6″ event for RI and 6-12″ in Eastern MA. It’s still a little early and too low confidence for a first-look snow map, but that gives you an idea of the current thought process. If it’s any further west, we quickly get to the widespread 8-16″ storm scenario. Check out the very impressive computer model maps below.

The GFS has a very intense storm, but not as strong as the ECMWF or Canadian model. It would be an Eastern MA blizzard, and a few inches of snow in RI.

You can see the core of the strong winds just off the coast. A slight jog west, and hurricane-force gusts would hit Cape Cod.

GFS Snow totals – The heaviest snow misses RI. The model does not show snow on Cape/Islands because of the way the grid points are set up. There would be 6″+ out there.

EPS Ensemble mean snow – this is an average of the 50 EPS members. It shows a moderate to high-impact event for RI and SE MA.

EPS Control Snow forecast – The EPS Control run with a heavy snow event in coastal SE MA

EPS Precipitation forecast – heaviest is just offshore…playing with a blowtorch.

ECWMF wind gusts – potential for hurricane-force gusts just off shore or on Cape/Islands

ECMWF Operational snow forecast – A MAJOR event for coastal SE MA

ECMWF Ensemble low positions – all the different members show an intense storm. Some are historically strong. Anything in the circled area would be a HUGE storm for Eastern MA and quite a big deal for RI, too.

Canadian model – snow forecast – A raging blizzard on Cape Cod and the islands. Notice the sharp cutoff on the western edge of the storm. Therefore, if the storm track shifts slightly east, the impact goes down dramatically.

Canadian – that is a wicked intense storm southeast of Nantucket. Incredible.

Chances of an East Coast Snowstorm Increase

Good evening! Here is an updated model analysis regarding next week’s snowstorm. The chances are now higher for a storm, and I would say there is a 60-70% chance of it happening. First, let’s take a look at the 18z GFS at Hour 114. 

 

Areas north of the 0 BLUE LINE are below freezing, which means that those areas will be getting snow at this moment, according to the GFS. Roughly areas from I-20 northward get snow/winter precipitation. Here is the next frame, Hour 120, of the 18z GFS. 

 

Again, areas north of the 0 Blue Line are below freezing, so most of North Carolina, except the southeast corner, is in snow or wintry precipitation. However, the GFS then takes the system too far from the coast to produce snow further in Mid-Atlantic and New England. 

 

The Canadian model shows a scenario that seems a little weird. It has a double low scenario, with one weakening, and then another forming right off the coast. It has a tendency to often put up double lows on the map. regardless, in its scenario, it has the North Carolina and Virginia mountains, and a lot of Southern New England, in snow. 

 

Now, here is the 12z European. It shows a monster snowstorm, just like yesterday, so let’s take a look at a few frames. Below is Hour 120 on the European.

 

The purple dashed line you see on the above image is the freezing line. Everyone above that line is getting snow/wintry precipitation. Now take a look at what happens at the next frame (Hour 132).

 

There is some very heavy precipitation inside in the purple line. This means a very heavy mix or very heavy wet snow for places like Rocky Mount, NC. Also, the massive low pressure system now approaches the Northeast with some heavy precipitation. I do think this precip is a lot further west then it actually will be. I do not think areas west of Eastern West Virginia will get snow. Maybe a few flurries, but thats it. Now, here is the next frame, Hour 144. 

 

Look at that low in the Atlantic. Wow! It seems to be in the 960-970 mb range. Even though it is pretty far from the coast, it is so strong that it produces a lot of heavy snow along the coast. If this verifies, it actually means it would be a major blizzard. I personally do not think the European is quite right. The track and snow areas will probably be pretty similar to what the Euro shows, but everything will be actually weaker than what it shows. Does the potential exist for a system of this strength? Yes, obviously. However, I give it only a 10% chance of verifying. Perhaps a system with heights in the 990 millibar range is more realistic. 

 

Unlike the 2 storms that have been driven south this month, this is much more like a storm (next week) that should trend west and stronger with time. Therefore I think the swath of snow and the pressures you see on the ECWMF package are not yet west enough.

Control snow

Operational

Storm Potential 3/26/14 The Early Synopsis

By now you have probably heard about the potential for a storm along the East Coast next week. There will be a sharpening trough in the Eastern United States, and a storm will likely form in the Southeastern United States and head northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The speed and degree of the trough sharpening will decide whether the storm misses, hits, or brushes Southern New England. We will check the computer model trends in the coming days.

Winter Continues Through March for Many

Perhaps that should have been the title. But look at this map. NOAA is using a scheme called “Divisional Ranking” to show the public how temperatures were. I have 2 objections to this as to why this is deceiving.

 

1) The shading of the below normal temps is nowhere near as distinct as the shading of the above. You have to look twice to see it.

2) The other,and while this may be a valid method, it is very deceptive against reality. The divisional ranking scheme is such that , for instance, Hartford CT at 5.5 BELOW NORMAL is in the Near average, as well as NYC around 3.8 BELOW NORMAL. While we see LasVegas and a whole host of cities in the southwest at around 4 above normal in the much above? I understand what this is saying, because of the long nights where its dry its hard to have it this warm ( though Las Vegas and some of the other southwest cities are warmer now because they have become major urban heat islands compared to what they were 30-50 years ago). But how many of you in the northeast believe this was near normal or just a bit below? So using this method is deceptive. Unless you understand math, you are thinking Chicago at 10 below normal is in the same ball park as the southwest, which is nowhere near as warm as it was cold

Look at the actual temps, every 1.1C ( close to 2F and you tell me if what these people are doing is anything short of a deceptive practice to make it not look as cold as it was. BAD ENOUGH the temp distribution, but the shade of the colors should make it clear. And by the way, this was sent to me from someone at a prominent meteorology school, who shall remain nameless given the political climate we are in today.

This is classic. If NOAA put out that map above with actual temperatures , do you think it would have the lack of effect as someone glancing at what they did with the other chart, especially since we saw their winter forecast and the reality of what actually happened

Takes all the fun out of this:

Perhaps if this happens it would get New England, given the way NOAA is playing with divisional rankings, into the above normal for snowfall